Carlos Alcaraz is set to return to the ATP Tour at the Argentina Open and could soon be battling Novak Djokovic for the world No. 1 spot. Alcaraz, 19, has not played since early November due to injury, missing the Nitto ATP Finals and Australian Open. How quickly will he rediscover his top form, and will he challenge Djokovic and Rafael Nadal for the biggest titles?
If there is one thing that is certain on the ATP Tour after the 2023 Australian Open, it is that Novak Djokovic is the best player in the world right now.
No more wrangling over where he is in the rankings, or calculating how much higher he would be with Wimbledon ranking points added to his total. With a record-equalling 22nd Grand Slam title and the No. 1 ranking to boot, there is surely no argument – Djokovic is the one to beat.
Throw in the fact that Djokovic – described this week by Jimmy Connors as a “f***ing great tennis player” – will likely soon further enhance his GOAT credentials by breaking Steffi Graf’s record for the most weeks as world No. 1, and everything looks set firm at the very top of the men’s game.
But a disruptor is on the way back.
Carlos Alcaraz, the youngest men’s Grand Slam winner in history, the youngest ever ATP world No. 1 and ATP year-end No. 1, has not played on tour since suffering an abdominal injury at the Paris Masters on November 4. He missed the Nitto ATP Finals and Australian Open, where he lost his No. 1 spot to Djokovic, but he is set to make his comeback at next week’s Argentina Open.
Alcaraz’s return comes at a fascinating time.
When he won the US Open last summer, it looked like Alcaraz could be the new leader of men’s tennis, but the fact that he has only played 10 matches since then makes him in some ways still a fascinating unknown.
Yes he’s earned plenty of plaudits. Rafael Nadal said he would win multiple Grand Slam titles even before he won his first. Alexander Zverev called him the best in the world halfway through the clay season. Andy Roddick has described him as a “gift to the game”.
But after three months away, how soon will Alcaraz again lay claim to being the best in the game?
His return might be smoothed by a dip in form from several top players, including Daniil Medvedev and Casper Ruud, and injury concerns for others, most significantly Nadal, who could be out until the clay season. Plus Zverev, who is working his way back after almost six months out.
Very few of the top 20 stood up at the Australian Open, and if you stuck Alcaraz on a court right now, it is arguably only Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas who you would fancy would beat him – and even then, the Greek star has a 0-3 record against Alcaraz.
The next few months might offer a small glimpse into how the ATP will look over the next several years as we see Alcaraz matching up against those around him in age like Felix Auger-Aliassime, Holger Rune, Sebastian Korda and Jannik Sinner, who he contested three brilliant matches with in 2022.
Alcaraz has looked all smiles in several training updates on social media, watched on by coach Juan Carlos Ferrero, and joined at a session by former world No. 3 David Ferrer. “We keep working to get back to the best,” was the caption on one post, while another sent congratulations to Djokovic after he won the Australian Open, along with the message “hope to see you soon on court”.
Congratulations @DjokerNole for the Australian Open 🏆 and the world number 1️⃣! Very well deserved! 🤝🏻 Hope to see you soon on court! 😜 pic.twitter.com/B43X5AHz1E
— Carlos Alcaraz (@carlosalcaraz) January 29, 2023
The second clash between Alcaraz and Djokovic will surely be one of the most anticipated non-‘Big Three’ matches in recent years. Since their first meeting in Madrid last year – a thrilling match which Alcaraz won after three tight sets – they have played only four tournaments together, two of which have been Grand Slams. It may be a few months before they meet again.
Alcaraz is set to make his return from injury on clay at the Argentina Open, which starts on February 13. Then he will defend his title at the Rio Open before playing the Mexican Open and then the first Masters 1000 events of the season in Indian Wells and Miami.
Djokovic will likely be at neither Indian Wells or Miami as he is unvaccinated so cannot currently enter the United States due to travel restrictions. The world No. 1 will probably play just one tournament in Dubai, which starts on February 27, before the clay season starts in early April.
That means the next opportunity for Alcaraz v Djokovic Part II will probably be the Monte-Carlo Masters, by which time Alcaraz could be back to No. 1.
In fact, in a few weeks, there could be a tie at the top of the rankings. If Alcaraz wins both of his upcoming clay events, he would be level on 6,980 ranking points with Djokovic on the week starting February 27, which is the week where Djokovic could break Graf’s all-time record of 377 weeks as world No. 1. If there is a tie then Djokovic would remain No. 1 as he holds the advantage over Alcaraz in the ATP rules (which are calculated in the case of a tie by most points accrued from Grand Slams, Masters and ATP Finals).
There could be movement the week after, though, as Djokovic is playing in Dubai and Alcaraz will be playing in Acapulco. Even when Djokovic is not playing in March, he could still be No. 1 as Alcaraz made the semi-finals of Indian Wells last year and is the defending champion in Miami, so has lots of points to defend.
In summary, while the last few months have been unfortunate for Alcaraz, the stage for the 2023 season is beautifully set as he prepares to return.
