Lionel Messi’s historic eighth Ballon d’Or triumph didn’t shock anyone in the footballing realm.
The Argentine icon had steered his nation to the 2022 World Cup, solidifying his status as arguably the greatest footballer in history.
Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe were his nearest challengers in 2023, both enjoying exceptional years of their own. Haaland scored 54 goals in all competitions during the eligibility period, while Mbappe led France to back-to-back appearances in the World Cup final, sensationally scoring a hat-trick against Argentina (albeit in an eventual losing effort) to scoop the Golden Boot.
All three are expected to be in contention once more in 2024, despite Messi’s move to Inter Miami at club level, but there’s plenty of other players who may feel they are in with a chance of being crowned the best player in the world.
Lionel Messi
Why he could win:
With Messi considered the best player ever by many, it’s inevitable that he’ll pick up votes in 2024 because of his reputation alone.
His performances are usually pretty damn good too though and, despite playing in MLS, Messi’s lack of international retirement after winning the World Cup means that he will have another chance of international glory at the Copa America in the summer.
If we plays to anywhere near the level he did at the World Cup, expect Argentina to win the tournament and for Messi to be, once again, one of the favourites for the Ballon d’Or.
Likelihood: 7/10
Jude Bellingham
Why he could win:
Jude Bellingham’s start to life at Real Madrid has been out of this world, ascending the Englishman from ‘wonderkid’ to ‘superstar’ status in the blink of an eye.
Double digit goals in La Liga in as many games, coupled with a game-winning brace in his first ever Clasico against Barcelona, has seen Bellingham quickly ascend to the top of the mountain in the Spanish capital.
All eyes are on Bellingham, yet he doesn’t appear to be fazed by anything. Quite the contrary, he appears to thrive in the pressure-cooker environment of the Santiago Bernabeu, and he could hold the key to finally ending England’s long wait for trophy success at international level.
If Bellingham keeps going at the rate he is, he could be a shoo-in for the Ballon d’Or.
Likelihood: 9/10
Kylian Mbappe
Why he could win:
Surely it’s only a matter of time before the best footballer of his generation wins the Ballon d’Or, right?
Mbappe has finished in the top ten in every year since 2017, enjoying a career-best third place finish in 2023, and is clearly a favourite of voters thanks to his performances in big games – he scored a hat-trick in the World Cup final and has well over 200 career goals to his name for PSG.
As the star player for the favourites to win Euro 2024, Mbappe is likely to put in some eye-catching performances which will surely garner plenty of votes.
Likelihood: 8/10
Erling Haaland
Why he could win:
One word: goals.
Erling Haaland scores goals. A ludicrous amount of goals. A record-breaking amount of goals.
Those goals helped Manchester City to the treble, Haaland to second in the Ballon d’Or rankings and the Norwegian to the Gerd Muller Award too. The only thing that may hurt his chances of winning the award is Norway simply not being good enough to compete at Euro 2024.
Likelihood: 7/10
Mohamed Salah
Why he could win:
In what was considered a ‘down year’, Mohamed Salah managed to bag 28 goals and 14 assists in all competitions during the 2022/23 campaign. That is how good Mohamed Salah is at football.
The 2023/24 campaign has seen normal service resumed for Salah at Liverpool, and leading the club to another Premier League title, as well as a potential AFCON win with Egypt, could be enough to sway voters into handing him a first Ballon d’Or win.
Likelihood: 6/10
Why he could win:
There are times when you’re watching Vinicius Junior race down the left flank, drift past three players effortlessly, before squaring expertly to a teammate, and think “yep, this guy is the best footballer in world.”
Those times have been getting ever-more frequent over the last few seasons, however with Bellingham now taking most of the limelight at Real Madrid once can expect Vini’s brilliance to go slightly under the radar moving forward.
Likelihood: 4/10
Rodri
Why he could win:
If Rodri plays the way he did during the 2022/23 season, he’s in with a shout.
In a career-best campaign, the defensive midfielder was the MVP for the best football team in the world. The only problem is that, in order to be that MVP, Rodri had to play over 60 games of football in a single season – something he’s not too keen on doing again anytime soon.
Likelihood: 4/10
Harry Kane
Why he could win:
I mean did you see the goal Kane scored against Darmstadt in the Bundesliga?
Harry Kane is one of, if not the only, footballer in the world currently capable of scoring goals like that, and having moved to Bayern Munich, he’s finally going to win some trophies (barring an unmitigated disaster in Bavaria).
Winning the Champions League with Bayern and captaining England to Euro 2024 glory would go a long way to persuading voters that Kane’s the man.
Likelihood: 5/10
Cristiano Ronaldo
Why he could win:
Yep, he may been essentially ostracised from European football following his spat with Manchester United, but since moving to the Saudi Pro League Cristiano Ronaldo has just continued to do what he does best: score goals.
The top goalscorer in footballing history is tearing it up for Al Nassr and, if he continues his form into Euro 2024 with Portugal, could end his international career with yet another medal draped around his neck.
Likelihood: 7/10
Julian Alvarez
Why he could win:
Signed as a striker, but too good to be simply playing second fiddle to Erling Haaland, Pep Guardiola opted to make Julian Alvarez an attacking midfielder at the start of the 2023/24 season. Boy oh boy did it pay dividends.
Alvarez is now not only one of world football’s most rounded forwards, he’s also now one of the most wanted. And when Barcelona or Real Madrid come sniffing for you when you’re on the up, it’s usually because you’ve got Ballon d’Or potential.
Likelihood: 6/10
Lautaro Martinez
Why he could win:
Lautaro Martinez has been on the cusp of greatness for what feels like an eternity, but the pieces may finally be falling into place for the Argentine at Inter.
More clinical in front of goal than he’s ever been, Martinez could turn out to be the star turn in a deep Champions League run, while he has the ability to rival Messi and Alvarez as the main man for Argentina at the Copa America.
Don’t discount him.
Likelihood: 4/10
